Several guests who attended the Armed Forces Day reception in Naypyidaw on March 27 told me that when they met with Snr-Gen Than Shwe at the palatial new reception center, his handshake was firm and his look confident.

Senior army leaders reportedly whispered to guests that this was to be his last official reception––the Burmese dictator was readying to take a back seat.

A few hours earlier, Than Shwe had observed a military parade where he delivered a short speech. Although the senior general did not say he was planning to retire, sources told me the message was right there between the lines.

“Our armed forces were originally formed by patriotic heroes to fight for independence,” he said.

“The leaders of the armed forces turned from politicians into patriotic Tatmadaw-men when the armed struggle for independence was necessary, and they turned back into politicians engaged in national politics when the time came for political struggle,” he continued. “In this way, our armed forces has had a brilliant history of achievement both in political and in military affairs.”

I take this as a clear indication that the military is not going to quit politics, but intends to stay in the arena where it will continue to  play its dual role. 

Than Shwe apparently said the armed forces should have three “capabilities”: military capability, organizational capability and administrative capability.

He also said the army had a duty to assist the “gentle transition.”

Indeed, not only is a gentle transition important for the junta chief's piece of mind, but so too is a safe exit strategy for his family and himself––they are almost universally despised around the country, after all.

Mark my words, if Than Shwe opts to vacate the throne, he will make sure his most trusted lieutenants take over the reins of both the new government and the armed forces. 

It's not Aung San Suu Kyi who keeps Than Shwe awake at night, but the worry of how much he can trust his subordinates and who he can entrust his family's security to.

I think the enemy is within. Than Shwe knows this; he himself played a Machiavellian hand when he purged feared spy chief Gen Khin Nyunt and betrayed his mentor, Gen Ne Win, who died while under house arrest in 2002.

Like Shakespeare's Macbeth, the junta chief may spend insomniac nights wracked by visions of daggers and the paranoid certainty that the ghosts of his past will return to seek revenge.

Than Shwe knows that several retired army officers who are loyal to different factions within the armed forces could become potential enemies. As the winds of change blow, some will most likely switch sides.

Aye Ne Win, one of Ne Win's grandsons who is now serving a life sentence, once told veteran NLD politician Win Tin when they met in Insein prison compound that he wanted to see Suu Kyi and student leader Min Ko Naing released, according to Win Tin's recently released book.

Within the establishment, there are several other powerful and influential people who would enjoy seeing Than Shwe overthrown and humiliated.   

Knowing that he could also face the same karma as Ne Win or Khin Nyunt, the former postal clerk has diligently handpicked several of his former aides and staff officers to serve in key positions.

Loyal servants include: Gen “Thura” Shwe Mann, the coordinator of Special Operations, the army, navy and air force; Lt-Gen Myint Swe, the head of the Bureau of Special Operations (5); Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein; and Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation Maj-Gen Htay Oo, who is also Secretary-General of the Union Solidarity Development Association.

Than Shwe has also promoted young officers who have served him in the past. They include Lt-Gen Hla Htay Win, Maj-Gen Tin Ngwe, Maj-Gen Kyaw Swe and Maj-Gen Wai Lwin, who is now commander of the Naypyidaw region.

They are, in effect, Team Than Shwe, his faithful clansmen.

Perhaps, over the coming decade, these officers will play a key role in reshaping Burma. Their roles will change over the years––some will transfer between the armed forces and the Parliament and vice versa; some will move up in the hierarchy and some will lose favor.

Than Shwe knows how the mighty can fall; he has seen it with his own eyes. His message during Armed Forces Day to his officers that they will play key role in politics "whenever the need arises" is a cowardly cry for help.