Friday/Saturday/Sunday, November 15 – 17, 2002

As United Nations special envoy to Burma Razali Ismail plodded through his ninth trip to Rangoon this week, the enthusiasm and hope for a diplomatic breakthrough that preceded prior missions has all but evaporated. Rangoon’s recalcitrant generals appear unwilling to take the most basic steps needed to get Buema’s reconciliation procss back on track.

 

The situation could get worse, as there are reports that this mission mat be Mr. Razali’s last to Burma, since taking over the post two years aga. Speaking last week to Malaysiakini, a well-known internet newspaper, the Malaysian diplomat said he might quit his role as facilitator of the stalled Burmese national reconciliation process if the dialogue does not lead to some tangible signs that the junta is ready for change and reform. This unusual interview, which broke with diplomatic protocol, sent a strong signal to the generals in Rangoon: If they don’t get serious, the negotiations and any hopes for international respectability are over.

 

Mr.Razali said, “[The government] didn’t give a time but they said [the dialogue] would take place very soon … In my understanding, ‘very soon’ would be like a couple of weeks or three to four weeks. It has been more than that.”

 

In Rangoon, National League for Democracy spokesman U Lwin continues to hope for progress with the military regime, which calls itself the State Peace and Development Council, while trying to remain optimistic that Mr.Razali has what it takes to influence the junta to change. “We are always hopeful,” says the veteran opposition leader, while admitting that he’s less sanguine this time than in the past. If Mr.Razali leaves his post, U Lwin hopes that a new U.N ambassador can be appointed immediately to prevent the momentum from going backwards; if doesn’t guarantee any new positive developments will occur.

 

Indeed, signs of frustration are abvious throughout the erstwhile movement to quell the decadeslong civil war. Ethnic leaders, including Shan leader Khun Htun Oo, charge that the lack of progress is no surprise because Mr.Razali never orked to understand ethnic issues. There is no way he can facilitate a move to a more representative Burma if he doesn’t grasp the issues that currently divide the population. Although some ethnic and NLD leaders still respect him, the criticism is new. Previously, military leaders, the opposition and the international community were united in praising Mr. Razali’s efforts in bringing the two sides to the negotiating table.

 

Despite Mr.Razali’s much-publiczed announcement that “secret talks” between the SPDC and NLD began in Rangoon two years ago, the opposition now says that the dialogue has stalled. Sources in Rangoon say that lately the generals have even been keeping their distance from the U.N. envoy. This is probably a punitive response to what the junta feels is Mr. Razali’s cozy relationship with the NLD leader, Noble laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

 

Aung Naing Oo, an exiled political analyst, says that after two years of aontinual failed attempts to break some new ground, Mr. Razali is probably looking for a way out. And if the two sides feel he could be a lame-duck negotiator, moving ahead now may seem pointless since the process will have to start over with a new suit soon. Chao Tzang Yawnghwe, a Canada based Shan scholar, says the international community can now see that the junta was never serious about any type of reform. “We now can see their true color,” he says, while maintaining that if Mr.Razali quits it will send a message to the junta that the international community doesn’t care about the country anymore. “He should not run away from this deadlock.”

 

There are fears the negotiator’s private dealings have damaged his credibility to the extent that neither  side takes him seriously. Mr.Razali has come under much fire for his position as chairman of Iris Technologies in Malaysia, which has entered into business deals with the regime during his tenure as special envoy. He has admitted the company’s relationship but claims that there is no conflict of interest for him.

 

During the last U.N mission in August, two SPDC leaders, Gen Than Shwe and Gen Khin Nyunt, promised Mr.Razali they would resume political dialogue in the near-term. But a power struggle between the two may be holding back talks. Burmese sources say that Gen Than Shwe, an old school hardliner who is also commander in chief of the defense services, is calling all the shots. They fear that he is building his own model of the Ne Win dictatorship, which in 26 years turned Burma from one of Asia’s richest countries to one of the world’s poorest.

 

In preparation for this week’s meetings, the generals were expected to come up with a surprise ortwo to prevent the envoy from jumping ship. The best they have come up with so far is a half-hour meeting yesterday between Than Shwe and Mr.Razali. Even this is significant, as any cooperation reveals that the junta is not yet ready to admit to the world that they’re unilaterally pulling out of internationally managed peace talks. Skeptics, however, counter that the brief meeting is more likely to be a mere face-saving gesture for Mr.Razali and the generals, both of hom are in need of some legitimacy right now.

 

It is unlikely the junta is interested in coming to the negotiating table for serious talks. And there’s no consistent pressure forcing them into it. Every time they release a handful of political prisoners, the international press applauds-despite the harsh reality that the symbolic amnesty of five or 10 does not hint at any hope of imminent freedom for the thousands who still rot in jail. And unless the regime agrees to a U.N. framework providing a schedule for institutional change, hope for democratic reform is futile.

 

With dialogue going nowhere, the generals’ iron grip on power will persist as will the socio-economic crises they fail to address.