After almost a week of rumors that Burmese democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is about to be released, many are beginning to wonder if this is simply another sleight of hand trick by the ruling junta.

Unconfirmed reports have been circulating since last Tuesday, suggesting that the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate, who has been under house arrest since September 2000, could be released “within days.” But opposition leaders became more cautions over the weekend amid little sign that her release was imminent.

 

Both opposition and government officials had earlier hinted that, If and when Ms. Suu Kyi is freed, this would be a accompanied by news of a settlement to end the country’s longstanding political deadlock. But many doubt this is practical at present. While Ms. Suu Kyi’s release would be good news for her many admirers at home and abroad, it alone will not even begin to address the needs of a country that has suffered immensely from decades of conflict and mismanagement by the military.

 

There have been hints that the junta might accompany her release with an invitation for Ms. Suu Kyi to participate in a “committee” to oversee efforts to repair Burma’s deteriorating health and education sectors. Analysts believe this would just be an attempt by the generals to use her legitimacy to enhance their standing at home and abroad. But Ms. Suu Kyi is nobody’s puppet and the generals are deluding themselves if they think she will agree to a deal that will help them hold onto power indefinitely.

 

Nor do other recent developments in Burma give much cause for optimism. Although five opposition supporters were released from jail on Friday, nearly 2,000 other political prisoners remain behind bars. Peaceful gatherings are still banned and U Salai Tun Than, a 70 year old professor, was sentenced to seven years in jail for daring to hold a one man protest outside Rangoon’s city hall last November.

 

Media freedom remains as nonexistent as ever with the state controlled press preoccupied with establishing the junta’s “nation building” credentials while ignoring the real concern of ordinary Burmese. Members of the country’s many ethnic minorities continue to reveal horrific accounts of the army’s human rights violations in border areas. And the military intelligence service, headed by Lt. Gen Khin Nyunt, remains a powerful force throughout the country.

 

Given that Burma remains such a police state, it is worth asking why the generals still feel the need to play such cat-and-mouse games with Ms. Suu Kyi when they are so clearly in control. The probable answer is that they see Ms. Suu Kyi as a threat, because she has the one thing that dictators always fear a mind pf her own that they cannot control.  

In 1995, the last time she was released from house arrest, Ms. Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy raised the ante by boycotting the junta sponsored National Convention, that is supposed to be drafting a new Burmese constitution. She also called for tougher international action against the regime, including economic sanctions. Subsequently, the United States government imposed a ban on new investmant in Burma.

 

The junta responded harshly, banning Ms. Suu Kyi’s weekend gatherings, closing the NLD offices and arresting many of the party’s most faithful members. In Nov. 1996, Ms. Suu Kyi was physically attacked by a mob of pro-junta thugs. When she persisted in testing junta thugs. When she persisted in testing the limits of her “freedom” by attempting to visit cities outside of Rangoon on party business, Ms. Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest again in Sept. 2000. And for more than a year and a half, that is where she has remained, a priisoner in her own home.

 

Based on past experience, letting Ms. Suu Kyi walk out of her door would be like letting the genie out of the bottle. That may explain the delay in her release since the junta knows full well that, if ahe is freed, Ms. Suu Kyi will not be content to live in a slightly larger cage. Instead she will travel to party offices, meet supporters and demand the release of other political prisoners. She and her party will also conyinue to push for political reform.

 

Perhaps the generals, who are known to be great believers in the power of magic, are hoping that they can somehow use this to previal on Ms. Suu Kyi to do their what to harness her immense influence and prevent it from turning against them once again, the junta will have to try a new tactic and show some sincerity for the first time.

 

For decades, the generals have claimed that they want to build a peaceful and modernnation based on national reconciliation and democratization. Those are the same aims espoused by Ms. Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders. But so far the two sides have never come to gether to pursue those shared goals because the junta has never show any sincerity in living up to its rhetoric, instead placing a higher priority on retaining power at any cost.

 

Now the generals hav a chance to make a break with the past by freeing Ms. Suu Kyi and embarking on a genuine program of national reconciliation. But if they instead try to control her, even after she will no doubt reveal once again that she’s still her own woman. And next time, the generals may not have as much luck getting her back into the bottle.